The sanctions hurt exports more than the corona
President of the Export Confederation: Self-sanctions reduced exports more than the corona, next year will be better for exports than this year; Provided, of course, that officials do not orderly lower the exchange rate.
According to the International Iranian Stone Exhibition, Mohammad Lahouti stated that according to the official customs statistics of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the monthly export volume is $ 31 billion and the country's import volume is $ 34 billion. , In all countries of the world have been declining and trade and exports have been lower than expected, and thus, in 2020, completed their activities.
The head of the Confederation of Exports of Iran added: "In Iran, given that a large volume of non-oil exports to neighboring countries, the outbreak of Corona virus affected Iran's exports for almost six months and blocked common borders, so it was natural that this year's exports , To experience a decrease of 17 to 20% compared to 1398.
The negative trade balance is less than $ 2 billion
"Non-oil exports have increased in February compared to January," he said. "Accordingly, given that companies prefer to increase the speed of their exports at the end of the year, it is expected that The country's non-oil exports will reach $ 33 billion to $ 34 billion, and thus, the current negative balance of $ 3 billion will be reduced to less than $ 2 billion.
According to Lahouti, Iran's export target countries are still the same five former countries, not including India; While in the import sector, Germany is among the countries importing Iran, although the volume of imports from Europe is not high, but with Germany, the volume of imports is still maintained.
Why is India not one of Iran's export partners?
He went on to say that Indians were not barred from selling their goods to Iran, but were influenced by US policies to buy goods from Iran. "Indians import less goods from Iran," he said. Of course, some of the goods are also imported to India from Iran in the form of re-exports, and it is possible that if Iranian goods were exported directly to India, India would also be among Iran's export partners; But because India does not accept Iranian export cargo documents, Iranian goods are exported to India through re-exports.
The head of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce's Trade Facilitation and Export Development Commission continued: "Despite the corona problem, Iran's export markets have not changed and, of course, Iran's exports have not decreased compared to the global economy, which shows that Iranian exporters have tried to maintain their exports." Have; In such a way that $ 22 billion of foreign exchange has been returned to the country's economy from this place, which is about 70% of the export volume, which is the return of foreign exchange; At the same time, this shows that export currency can help separate the Iranian economy from oil revenues.
The decline in exports is due to self-sanctions
Lahouti believes that if it were not for the cumbersome directives and laws issued this year, which left the country's exporters in a state of confusion and trouble, and whose effects continue, the volume of Iran's exports, despite all the problems, would be higher than the current amount.
"I believe that the decline in exports is more due to self-imposed sanctions and the creation of self-imposed barriers than to the spread of the coronavirus," he said.
Next year for exports will be different from this year
Lahouti also said about the forecast of next year's exports: "We have a different year ahead of us for next year; As Iran's presidential election approaches, on the other hand, the country's foreign exchange policies may experience better conditions under the influence of Communication 177 of the Government's Economic Coordination Headquarters.
He added: "While the development of Iran's relations with the world is also probable and it is possible that the United States will return to Borjam and the sanctions will be lifted; So next year will be a different year from this year for Iran's economy and exports.
According to the President of the Export Confederation of Iran, this year is a unique year; Because both the Covid 19 virus is under control and sanctions and tight oil sales conditions are improving; So I see next year as a better year than this year; But provided that self-made and cumbersome barriers to foreign trade are removed.
He stressed: Communication 177 of the Government Economic Coordination Headquarters, which refers to the issue of return of export currency and methods of fulfilling the foreign exchange obligation on the one hand and the issue of providing import currency on the other hand, must be properly implemented and its deficiencies and shortcomings eliminated; Therefore, if this happens, it is predicted that next year we will be able to see an improvement in exports.
Disadvantages of grammatical reduction of exchange rates
Lahouti said: "The concern and concern of the exporting community is that due to the whispers that are heard about the reduction of the exchange rate to unimaginable numbers and figures, the government should turn to the mandatory exchange rate."
He added: "Although the value of the national currency should be maintained, if sanctions are lifted and openings are made in Iran's oil revenues, the policy of injecting cheap currency and rent should not be put on the agenda to artificially reduce prices;" This is because both the country's foreign exchange resources are wasted and exports are in trouble and reduced, while on the other hand, the demand for imports will increase artificially.
