According to the International Iranian Stone Exhibition, the most important issue that is being considered these days after the discussion about Borjam is the economy. From the beginning, the people and properties have been looking to see what will happen to the country's economy after Borjam, and the reason for this is the constant pressure of the Trump team on Iran over the past four years. Many believe that the state of our country's economy will improve somewhat after the arrival of Democrats led by Joe Biden in the White House, and other groups believe that the recovery and improvement of Iran's economy has other components besides Borjam.

To answer these ambiguities, we spoke with Dr. Kamran Moayed Dadkhah, a professor of economics at North Eastern University. He believes that if Iran continues to pursue tensions with other countries in the world, including the United States, the possibility of foreign investment and even real economic exploitation of a contract such as a 25-year contract between Iran and China (assuming a contract) is ruled out. Dadkhah believes that in the current situation, there is no alternative to the BRICS agreement and that it should move towards de-escalation, revive this international treaty and then move towards growth by adopting the right economic measures and policies that the country has lacked in previous years. And economic prosperity continued.

The details of the conversation with Kamran Moayed Dadkhah are as follows:

These days, with the election of Mr. Biden as the next President of the United States, the possibility of the return of the United States to the UN Security Council has been raised. In your opinion, what economic benefits did Borjam bring to Iran that now we have to wait for the US to return to Borjam; Because the political rivals of the Iranian government at the time of the implementation of Borjam also claimed that this agreement did not bring much fruit to the Iranian economy.

Of course, with the arrival of Mr. Biden, the United States will pursue other policies, and if Washington returns to Burjam, there will be great benefits for both sides, but it should be noted that the economy is not like the health of one body. When your body is infected with a virus, the problem is solved by taking medicine and vitamins and the person regains his health, but if a person's body has various diseases and has lost physical abilities, any medicine, even if it can cure a disease. (Which is often not possible) will have many side effects and can aggravate other diseases.

A healthy economy requires security, freedom, and the acceptance of economics knowledge and technology in policy-making. In addition, the economy needs proper relations with other countries. Unfortunately, in the last few decades in Iran, the right economic policies have not been adopted in the country. Iran has unlimited capacity and assets in terms of resources, it has very good people and its geographical location is excellent. Iran can become a very powerful country economically in the international system, but a conflict with the United States or any other country will undoubtedly affect the process of Iran becoming an economic and political power in the United Nations.

In my opinion, until 1980, Iran's relations with the United States were of great benefit to both countries, but all these relations ended 180 degrees to the detriment of the country at once, after being taken hostage at the US embassy. Accordingly, I believe that with the arrival of Mr. Biden, if the issue of returning to Borjam is raised and this action is taken, it will be in the best interests of the country, but the most important point is that policies inside Iran must also change. It is not right just to tie the solution of all the problems of the country to Mr. Biden's return, but the right foreign policy as well as economic policies must be adopted. If not, nothing will happen even if Obama returns to the White House.

Some economists talk about the refusal of development in Iran. According to these people, the presence or absence of Iran in the international economy will not make much difference to the economy. According to him, the trend of previous years, especially from the mid-1980s until today, has shown that Iran's economy is moving towards Pakistan; A country that, despite its relatively good relations with the international community and powers such as the United States and China, is struggling economically with many problems. In your opinion, is the current state of Iran's economy moving towards development or is Iran really in a state of stagnation?

First of all, Iran's economy is not comparable to Pakistan. Iran has a lot of resources and facilities and can be one of the most prominent and successful economies in the world. Pakistan, on the other hand, has many problems and is still struggling with poverty and hunger. But back to your question. In the last forty-one years, Iran's economy has not developed much, which is due to incorrect government policies. Proper relations with the rest of the world could have been beneficial to Iran's economy, but when Iran severed ties with the United States, other countries allowed themselves to be abused, and this has happened repeatedly over the years.

Iran-US relations were in Iran's favor in the years before the attack on the US embassy, ​​and Borjam was a positive step for Iran's economy. If Iran's policies were right at the time of Borjam's signing, Borjam could have been much more useful, but when Iran comes into conflict with the United States, other countries will undoubtedly take advantage of it. In the case of China, it is not bad to see how this government treats Uighur Muslims. Let us also recall that when Mao was in power, the policy took a big step forward, and as a result of this policy, at least 5 million Chinese people died of starvation. Do you think that a government that treats its people in this way may grieve for the people of other countries?

The 25-year Iran-China agreement, discussed in recent months, was seen by some as Iran's reaction to the US withdrawal from the UN Security Council and the Europeans' inaction in implementing the UN Security Council's provisions. Do you think that with Biden coming to power and the possibility of reducing economic tensions between China and the United States, China will be willing to conclude such an agreement if the conflict and tensions between Iran and the United States continue? In your opinion, can this agreement be an alternative for Borjam and a driving force for the Iranian economy?

If Sino-US relations move towards de-escalation with the arrival of President Joe Biden and the relationship between the two improves, Beijing will undoubtedly go to Washington, and if that does not happen, rest assured that China will also pursue its own interests. Not the interests of Iran.

Accordingly, if the Chinese want to play in a 25-year contract with Iran when Biden arrives, Tehran must enter into negotiations with other countries. That is, if the country's policy is right and China does not work, it can enter into negotiations with other countries, but this requires a good relationship with the world. Even relations with the oil-rich countries of the region must be established. If the relationship I am referring to does not exist, then policy-making will no doubt be flawed. Iran cannot be compared to Afghanistan or Pakistan because Iran's capabilities are such that it can achieve a good position in the international economy, but I emphasize again that this depends on the country's relationship with the world.

If we look at the pre-hostage history at the US embassy, ​​we see that relations with the United States were of great benefit to Iran. In the current situation, there is no suitable alternative to BRJAM, and most importantly, nothing can replace the relationship with countries and the right economic policy. No country has reached the example of North Korea by beating its back to China. Accordingly, Iran must make its own decisions and shape its policies based on its relationship with the world.

Given the current state of the Iranian economy and the dramatic devaluation of the national currency, is the economy basically capable of being more resilient to sanctions imposed during the Trump era? At present, some believe that if Biden wants to return to Borjam, serious negotiations and the lifting of sanctions will last at least until the establishment of the next Iranian government next year. Will the current Iranian economy withstand two years of pressure or not?

There is no doubt that the Iranian economy has suffered a lot, but in the economic debate we must note that we are not talking about death, we are talking about resilience. What is important is what the facilities and capabilities of a country are and where it has reached in practice.

The possibilities and capabilities of the Iranian economy and people are many, but in practice, due to wrong policies, the Iranian economy is in a very bad situation today. Note that the spread of poverty and hunger will lead to more suffering for the people, especially the working class and the poor, and those who are capitalist and prosperous will not be bitten, so to speak. Of course, some say that they follow the economic policies of China and Russia. The question that arises here is which of the sons of the country's officials went to China and Russia to study or live, who now want to put the country on the track of the economy and politics of China and Russia.

Therefore, the Iranian government must first reform its economic policies, improve the country's relations with the United States and other countries, and revive Borjam through negotiations with Mr. Biden's government. Adopting the right policies will allow Iran to conduct negotiations with the United States properly and minimize the short-term problems of the negotiation period. It is true that Iran's economy will be under pressure during the negotiation period (especially if it is long), but the alternative of not negotiating is nothing but the continuation of economic problems and pressure on the people.

The report of Iranian companies active in the stock market shows that with the intensification of sanctions against Iran, the decrease in imports, the production process in these companies has improved. What are the reasons for this? The mere devaluation of the national currency is the reason for this, or whether the exit of producers' competitors from the Iranian market has given this opportunity to domestic producers. Can the reduction of the country's dependence on oil revenues, which we have been forced to suffer, be considered a gift to strengthen the foundations of domestic production?

When the value of the national currency depreciates (ie, the exchange rate rises), foreign goods undoubtedly face higher prices, and as a result, people turn to the use of domestic goods. This is something that China has been doing for years. Therefore, oil revenues should not be allowed to cause the exchange rate to fall, ie the value of the national currency to rise, because such a thing would be detrimental to the foreign trade balance of non-oil, but should it be concluded that Iran should abandon oil exports? No! Iran should export as much oil as it can, but the use of oil dollars must be done properly. Part of these dollars should be spent on imports of capital machinery and modern technology, another part should be kept in long-term accounts and a small amount should be offered in the domestic market, but every day when the dollar price falls more than half a percent, the supply of dollars that day Oil should also be cut off. The domestic market must be based on supply and demand. The fact that the government is currently selling foreign currency at a bargain price has the aspect of subsidizing the powerful and the rich.

As an economist, what measures do you propose in the event of a revival of Barjam and what mechanisms do you propose to regulate the economy in the event of continued sanctions?

As I said before, the lifting of sanctions will provide a very good basis for Iran's health, prosperity and economic development, but all these effects need to structure Iran's economy, adopt the right policies, economic freedom and good relations with neighbors and other countries. If Borjam is not revived and sanctions are not lifted, there is no doubt that Iran's economy will get worse every day and the pressure on the people, especially the workers and the low-income class, will increase. In such a situation, the right structure and policies will be useful, but in general, the situation of Iran's economy will be very bad, and many countries will take advantage of this situation and advance their interests at the expense of Iran's economy.

* ILNA