What is this bubble that has not burst for 50 years ?!
Housing economics expert: 4 to 5 percent is added to the suburbs in Tehran every year. For 50 years, there has always been talk of a housing bubble, but it has never been evacuated.
According to the International Iranian Stone Exhibition, Baitullah Sattarian stated: The decrease in housing transactions in October, November and December was predictable; Because of the corona virus, fundamental changes have taken place in the world. The US election was further exacerbated by the fact that even the US economy itself was in the air for a month.
He added: "However, I do not believe that the housing market is on the path of recession because we have always faced a housing deficit in the last 50 years." I do not accept that some officials also say that housing prices are bubbling. After all, what is this bubble that has not been emptied for 50 years?
"Not all investors have a long-term analysis, so they believe some of the promises made by officials about the imminent drop in housing prices," he said. This will cause them to stop construction for a while and this production deficit will be added to next year's deficit.
Sattarian stressed: Officials should stop chanting slogans in the field of housing. In 1390, they celebrated the end of housing, while in Tehran, only in the same year, 6% of marginalization was added. The existence of marginalization itself means a lack of housing. In this situation, expecting a reduction in house prices is out of place.
Referring to the 50 percent share of housing in household expenditures, he said: "The inability of households to provide adequate housing leads to the phenomenon of marginalization." Marginalization in Tehran is increasing by 4 to 5 percent annually. This means that in another 20 years, a Tehran with the characteristics of dysfunctional areas will emerge next to the current Tehran.
The housing economist noted that about 20 million poor people live in the country. Next, officials estimate that we have 2.5 million vacant housing units in the country. When we look at these conflicts, we realize that there is no will to solve the housing shortage problem. The housing sector, which accounts for half of the country's economy, is managed by a deputy in a ministry. So it is clear that they have downplayed the issue and are not using expert opinions.
Sattarian stressed that in the medium and long term, one can not expect a decrease or even stability in housing prices: I believe that changes have taken place at the international level that in the future, Iran's economy will become one of the most important economies in the world. The infrastructure for this development must be addressed, especially in the housing sector.
* ISNA
