According to the International Iranian Stone Exhibition, some believe that the newly elected US President will pursue a completely different policy towards Iran than Trump, and that the pressure of sanctions against Iran will be reduced; And with the return of Joe Biden to Borjam, everything will return to May 7, 1397; Iran will return to its obligations, which have been briefly delayed, and the US government will lift its sanctions against our country.

Because the US political system is governed by the policies of the ruling party, a review of Democratic sanctions against Iran could be a good yardstick for judging the new administration's approach to Iran.

A look at the process of sanctions in different periods of the Democrats' tenure shows that out of 39 laws and executive orders that have been implemented against Iran or Iranian institutions have been included in the sanctions list, 23 sanctions have been implemented by US Democratic presidents. . Of these 23 laws or executive orders, 3 are sanctions on Jimmy Carter's share, 5 are on Bill Clinton's share and 15 are on Barack Obama's administration. In addition, many of the sanctions were first imposed by Democrats. In other words, the use of sanctions in foreign policy was first introduced by Democrats and the Jimmy Carter administration.

For the first time under Bill Clinton, secondary sanctions against Iran changed from military to economic. In the Obama administration, for the first time, the United States used the dollar tool to impose sanctions on one country in the world, Iran, and in the Comprehensive Sanctions Act of Iran (SISADA) announced to all banks in the world that if transactions are made for Iranian institutions, It deprives them of having a dollar brokerage account. On the basis of these sanctions, the Obama administration also for the first time sanctioned oil and the Central Bank of Iran in the National Defense Authorization Law and Executive Orders 13599 and 13622.

Accordingly, it should be noted that miracles should not be expected in the short term, and therefore emotional encounters will have no benefit other than damaging the crisis-stricken economy of a country with a devastating psychological effect, and will only cause more chaos and discouragement to the people.

It is true that with the coming to power of Joe Biden's Democratic administration in the United States, the US approach to Iran has changed and we can reduce the severity of sanctions against our country through "negotiation", but instead of relying on unrealistic horizons like what happened in Borjam. Addressing the real roots of domestic economic problems is a repetition of past mistakes.

It should be noted that the new US administration is facing problems, among which the issue of Barjam and negotiations with Iran is not a priority on the list. Here are some of the key issues facing the new government:

- Dealing with the spread of coronavirus

- Improving the state of the US economy

- Return to the Paris Agreement

- Return US trade and economic relations with Europe to normal

- Prevent trade confrontation with the world's largest economy, China

As mentioned, there are other important priorities for the new president besides Iran, so do not think that we will enjoy Biden's victory. There is still a long way to go and it is not possible to predict what changes Biden will make in the short term.

But what I think is far more important to Iran than the issue of sanctions and the lifting of sanctions is the question of whether we want to join the international village or not.

In this regard, the non-approval of the FATF and the uncertainty that has existed in the country for 13-14 years in this field, as well as in other areas such as exchange rate fluctuations, changes in the speed of legislation and lack of transparency, are very important government concerns at the domestic level. By not accepting the FATF, Iran's financial ties with the world will be cut off altogether. As a result, joining the FATF and international conventions is essential in order to create the right environment for banking, trade and cultural relations.

Regarding the question of what effect the inauguration of the new president will have on Instex, it should be noted that if the policy of the new US administration is to return to the UN Security Council and lift sanctions, Instex, which was a temporary mechanism for sanctions, will no longer make sense. It should be noted that even in this view, ie the lifting of sanctions and the resumption of relations, if Iran succeeds in reviving the oil markets before the sanctions, it will face prices much lower than the current level. Exactly the same thing happened in 2014, and the prospect of Iran's presence in the oil market, along with an increase in shale oil production, pushed oil prices from above $ 100 a barrel to below $ 50 in a short period of time. Contrary to the view that because Democrats are proponents of new energy and see high oil prices as desirable to support alternative energy, they seem to welcome lower oil prices; Because it reduces investment and the future decline of the oil industry, it also puts financial pressure on US oil lobbies close to Republicans. Therefore, allowing oil exports is not going to increase foreign exchange earnings from oil exports significantly.

On the other hand, it should be borne in mind that, regardless of the outcome of the US election, in less than a year, the Iranian presidential election is imminent and the Iranian economy needs the above-mentioned preconditions to resume international relations.

Finally, it can be said that Biden's victory in the short term will bring apparent stability to the Iranian economy and the foreign exchange market. But in the medium and long term it is not possible to comment with certainty unless there are significant changes in the approaches of the parties, especially in the field of foreign policy.

* Ms. Ferial Mostofi - ILNA