According to the International Iranian Stone Exhibition, on Sunday, September 20, the details of the two-emergency plan called the leap in production and housing supply will be followed up in the Islamic Consultative Assembly. According to a note in Article 1 of the first chapter of this plan, the government is obliged to plan and act in the first four years of the plan to produce and supply at least one million housing units annually in urban and rural areas of the country.

After the plan was proposed by the Civil Commission of the Majles, criticisms were leveled at it by housing experts and some members of the Majles. One of the most important criticisms is the discussion of the number of housing units planned for the first four years of the project. Really, what source has the one million housing units intended for this project used?

* Where does the construction of one million housing units in the parliamentary plan come from?

 Studies conducted in this area indicate that the number of one million housing units mentioned in the plan to jump in production and supply comes from the comprehensive housing plan, which was written in 1392 in the government of prudence and hope. This issue has been repeated many times in the speeches of the Minister of Roads and Urban Development under the title of the number of housing units required by the country.

In this report, an attempt has been made to calculate the need for housing using the data obtained from the population and housing census of 2016 and with the aim of reaching the desired point by 1405.

According to studies conducted in the housing market, the need to produce a housing unit in the country can be considered as a result of four categories of factors. Compensation for housing shortage against the number of households in the country, the need for new housing market demands, which are mainly due to marriage, renovation and improvement of housing units in dilapidated urban and rural areas and other issues, including natural housing stock fall into these four categories Are considered.

* Compensate for housing shortages against the number of households in the country

As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the first source of the need to build housing is the issue of compensating for the housing shortage against the number of households in the country. According to the latest population and housing census, while the number of households in the country was reported to be twenty-four million one hundred and ninety-six thousand households, but the number of housing units in the country was twenty-two million eight hundred and twenty-five thousand houses. 

In other words, in the current situation, some of the families in the country live together in a residential unit or their place of residence cannot be called housing. So, in order for every household to have a housing unit to live in, the country's housing market is facing a shortage of one million three hundred and seventy-one thousand shelters.

* New demands Young couples need housing

The second source of housing needs is the issue of new demands on the housing market. In this regard, many housing authorities, citing a miscalculation, link the number of marriages of previous years to the number of housing units needed to meet the new demand, while with the improvement of housing conditions, the marriage statistics will improve and will increase. 

To find out the statistics of the number of housing units needed to meet the new need, we went to Abolfazl Norouzi, a housing expert. "The housing market is always facing new demands, the most important of which is marriage," he said. "There are two ways to assess this need. One of these methods is to use the number of marriages in recent years and obtain an estimate using this data. "Accordingly, given that an average of 780,000 marriages have taken place in the last ten years, it can be said that the housing market must meet this number of new demands."

Nowruz, explaining that the rate of marriage in the country is highly dependent on the economic conditions of families, and in this, the provision of housing has a very fundamental role; In other words, if housing is provided easily and at a lower cost, the marriage statistics in the country will undoubtedly grow significantly, he explained. "Another way to calculate the housing needed to supply the demands arising from marriage," he said. , Considering the number of possible marriages in the country. Accordingly, according to the 2016 census, taking into account the death rate, there are about twelve million men who have never married in the age range of ten years and more in the country, which will reach the age of twenty by 1405. "Therefore, in order to start a family and need housing for these twelve million people, the necessary forecasts must be made and the construction of twelve million housing units must be on the agenda by the end of 1405."

* Worn tissue; A comprehensive threat against the country's households

The third source for determining the need for a residential unit goes back to the discussion of renovation and improvement of worn-out structures. Accordingly, according to studies conducted by the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development in 1392 to review the comprehensive housing plan, currently in Iran more than 11.2 million people live in 76.4 thousand hectares of dilapidated urban fabric.

In fact, it can be said that an average of 21% of the country's housing units are located in dilapidated structures, which has become a human, social and economic threat to cities and metropolises due to the numerous problems of dilapidated structures, especially the seismicity of the country's geological zone. . A look at available statistics indicates that at least 5 million dilapidated urban housing units are in need of reconstruction.

In addition to the worn-out urban fabric, the share of non-resilient housing units in the country's villages is even more worrying. In August 2017, Azizullah Mehdian, the deputy director of the Islamic Revolution Housing Reconstruction Foundation, stated in an interview: "Currently, there are more than 3.2 million non-resistant rural units in the country."

As a result, according to the statistics, there are a total of eight million housing units in the country that need to be rebuilt by 1405.

* Natural reserve housing units to be built to regulate the housing market

The last source to be considered for estimating the country's housing needs is the discussion of issues such as natural housing stock. In this regard, many countries in the world in order to regulate the supply and demand market must always anticipate a number of vacant and uninhabited housing units, thus responding to the weaknesses caused by the disproportionate distribution of residential units as well as the need for administrative and commercial units. . Therefore, it seems that about six hundred thousand units should be planned and built in ten years as a market reserve.

Of course, it may be suggested that the vacant housing units that currently exist in significant numbers in the country can be considered as market reserves. However, most of the vacant units are not habitable for the general public due to their luxury or location in tourist areas. In fact, most of these units, if they could be marketed, would not be empty now.

A study of statistics related to resources shows the need to build housing units to solve the problem of housing supply in the country until 1405, it is necessary from 2016 and within ten years, a total of twenty-two million housing units in the country to be produced and marketed. Therefore, the real need of the country is to produce 2.2 million units per year, and the construction of one million houses per year can not solve the housing market problem in general.